Baseball Forecasting Prognosticator of the Year 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008
 

 

Below is a yearly look at the Baseball Player forecasting ability of several sites and publications since 2004. The correlation between the year end player stats and the preseason predictions of each of the source are listed. The higher the correlation, the higher their success in projecting each Roto category.

 

 
 

 2004

Roto Guys

Roto Times

Lindys

Fantistics

Bball Note

BBHQ

Sport News

DraftHelp

ABs

0.537

0.592

0.436

0.655

0.569

0.483

0.439

0.621

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HRs

0.705

0.727

0.701

0.747

0.745

0.637

0.707

0.739

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RBI

0.624

0.624

0.557

0.664

0.638

0.521

0.558

0.627

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Runs

0.606

0.589

0.500

0.629

0.593

0.509

0.460

0.615

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SB

0.746

0.765

0.783

0.780

0.746

0.716

0.804

0.781

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

0.333

0.392

0.452

0.326

0.435

0.226

0.421

0.304

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

0.608

0.596

0.605

0.649

0.626

0.574

0.574

0.620
 2005 Baseball Fantistics Baseball Roto Times Baseball RotoGuys
  Prospectus   NoteBook   HQ  
ABs   0.528 0.509 0.523 0.528 0.472
             
HRs 0.666 0.722 0.715 0.698 0.697 0.675
             
RBI 0.611 0.656 0.621 0.637 0.631 0.621
             
Runs 0.546 0.516 0.566 0.605 0.553 0.562
             
BA 0.411 0.282 0.405 0.417 0.170 0.292
             
SB 0.775 0.828 0.803 0.820 0.802 0.800
  Baseball Fantistics Baseball Roto Times Baseball RotoGuys
  Prospectus   NoteBook   HQ  
IP - 0.768 0.667

 n/a

 0.711 0.677
             
W 0.520 0.429 0.377

 n/a

 0.467 0.374
             
S 0.223 0.331 0.304   n/a 0.290 0.239
             
ERA 0.354 0.264 0.359   n/a 0.130 0.214
             
WHIP 0.442 0.320 0.355   n/a 0.242 0.201
             
K 0.654 0.699 0.603   n/a 0.688 0.633

 

2006 Baseball Fantistics Baseball Roto Times ZIPS
  Prospectus   NoteBook    
ABs 0.510 0.521 0.428 0.482 0.519
           
HRs 0.757 0.741 0.713 0.750 0.763
           
RBI 0.689 0.725 0.595 0.687 0.637
           
Runs 0.470 0.532 0.461 0.505 0.485
           
BA 0.435 0.333 0.451 0.453 0.404
           
SB 0.867 0.850 0.837 0.852 0.866
  Baseball Fantistics Baseball Roto Times ZIPS
  Prospectus   NoteBook    
IP 0.554 0.703 0.546 0.595 0.519
           
W 0.483 0.536 0.473 0.440 0.497
           
S 0.221 0.124 -0.054 0.164 -
           
ERA 0.301 0.349 0.234 0.282 0.275
           
WHIP 0.471 0.351 0.325 0.373 0.535
           
K 0.681 0.689 0.538 0.670 0.623

2007? We didn't get enough projection sets to complete an analysis ;(

 
2008 Baseball Baseball Fantistics Marcels Roto ZIPS
  HQ Prospectus     World  
ABs 0.542 0.500 0.595 0.262 0.512 0.475
             
HRs 0.740 0.765 0.741 0.742 0.715 0.749
             
RBI 0.679 0.618 0.709 0.638 0.641 0.640
             
Runs 0.551 0.570 0.576 0.427 0.554 0.557
             
BA 0.576 0.543 0.510 0.516 0.540 0.499
             
SB 0.846 0.843 0.839 0.709 0.859 0.836
 2008 Baseball Baseball Fantistics Marcel Roto ZIPS
  HQ Prospectus     World  
IP 0.763 0.712 0.855 0.608 0.802 0.697
             
W 0.571 0.565 0.652 0.503 0.587 0.559
             
S 0.564 0.587 0.589 0.529 0.568 -
             
ERA 0.217 0.266 0.267 0.353 0.289 0.265
             
WHIP 0.330 0.295 0.313 0.348 0.255 0.418
             
K 0.533 0.516 0.550 0.403 0.473 0.473

 
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