For those new to my analysis, there are 2 sets of
projections which I compare. The batter’s
projections and those of the pitchers. Among the
batters I took the top 150 hitters from the 2008
season. Among the pitchers I took the top 100
pitchers from the 2008 season.
Why a 150/100 split?
It serves as a decent relationship to a 10-12 team
rotisserie league with a 14/9 hitter/pitcher split.
Below are the correlation results for each of the
major rotisserie categories that was measured
(the higher the number, the more relevance):
BATTING PROJECTION
RESULTS
|
2008 |
Baseball |
Baseball |
Fantistics |
Marcels |
Roto |
ZIPS |
|
|
HQ |
Prospectus |
|
|
World |
|
|
ABs |
0.542 |
0.500 |
0.595 |
0.262 |
0.512 |
0.475 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HRs |
0.740 |
0.765 |
0.741 |
0.742 |
0.715 |
0.749 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RBI |
0.679 |
0.618 |
0.709 |
0.638 |
0.641 |
0.640 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Runs |
0.551 |
0.570 |
0.576 |
0.427 |
0.554 |
0.557 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BA |
0.576 |
0.543 |
0.510 |
0.516 |
0.540 |
0.499 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SB |
0.846 |
0.843 |
0.839 |
0.709 |
0.859 |
0.836 |
Baseball HQ
took the batting average (BA)
category by a significant margin this year. Batting
Average has historically been the toughest category
to predict, as evident by the lower correlation
among the prognosticators.
Fantistics
correlated better overall in two of the categories
RBI and
Runs. They were
significantly better than the rest of the field in
RBIs as they were the last time we ran this
analysis.
Baseball Prospectus
took the highly correlated HR
category. And the
Stolen Base category, which empirically shows
the highest correlation, was taken by
Rotoworld.
New comer
Marcels
and
ZIPs
didn't fair so well in the batting categories and
part of this can be explained by the lack of
correlation with projecting the number of player
At Bats. Marcel and
ZIPs are a free projections service and
understandably don't update their
projections/playing time situations as frequently as
the other "pay" services
listed.
When I averaged all
of the correlations for 5 Rotisserie batting
categories,
Baseball HQ
came out ahead overall. Although they only
correlated the best in one category, they were close
enough in the other categories to combine for the
title (see averages below).
PITCHING PROJECTION
RESULTS
|
2008 |
Baseball |
Baseball |
Fantistics |
Marcel |
Roto |
ZIPS |
|
|
HQ |
Prospectus |
|
|
World |
|
|
IP |
0.763 |
0.712 |
0.855 |
0.608 |
0.802 |
0.697 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
W |
0.571 |
0.565 |
0.652 |
0.503 |
0.587 |
0.559 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S |
0.564 |
0.587 |
0.589 |
0.529 |
0.568 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ERA |
0.217 |
0.266 |
0.267 |
0.353 |
0.289 |
0.265 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WHIP |
0.330 |
0.295 |
0.313 |
0.348 |
0.255 |
0.418 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
K |
0.533 |
0.516 |
0.550 |
0.403 |
0.473 |
0.473 |
Similar to prior
seasons, Fantistics
came in very strong with their
pitching prognostication. Similar to the 2007
analysis they nailed three of the categories (Wins,
Saves, K) and the Innings
Pitched category.
Marcels
took the ERA category,
while
ZIPs
took the
WHIP category for the
second time since we've run this analysis. It should
be noted that WHIP is historically the second least
correlated or predictable category, and ZIPs was
significantly better than the rest of the field.
Similarly Marcels did very well with the ERA
category using a simple regression model.
With 3
of the 5 categories well correlated, it's not much
of a surprise to see
Fantistics
come up on top with the
best overall
correlation for 5 Rotisserie pitching categories.
Similar to
prior seasons
they have a lock on projecting strikeouts, earning
them another title win in the pitching area.
The 2008 Baseball Player
Prognosticator of the Year is........
...Fantistics.
For the forth year since I've been running this
analysis,
Fantistics has won out overall in each of these
years.
|
|
Baseball |
Baseball |
Fantistics |
Marcel |
Roto |
ZIPS |
|
|
HQ |
Prospectus |
|
|
World |
|
|
Hitter |
0.678 |
0.668 |
0.675 |
0.606 |
0.662 |
0.656 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pitcher |
0.443 |
0.446 |
0.474 |
0.427 |
0.434 |
0.429 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
0.561 |
0.557 |
0.575 |
0.517 |
0.548 |
0.542 |
As I've said in the
past,
I'm not sure what they are using for a crystal ball, but
it's been an impressive run for them.
If anything, Fantistics has proven that there is
predictability in
forecasting player projections,
something beyond a random walk.
Having won 3 titles in
the last 5 years in my highly competitive league
(The Faux GM League), I am often asked which player
projections service I use for my fantasy baseball
quest. I
usually rely on several sources for my fantasy
information, but have relied on the Fantistics draft
projections since 2001 (no need to explain why).
I sprinkle in some
Baseball Prospectus during the season, with a close
eye on the Rotoworld web site for breaking player
news. I'm also a fan of Baseball HQ and Baseball
Notebook, as I subscribe to then intermittedly as
well.
With good reason,
several of these sources (Baseball HQ, Baseball
Prospectus, & Fantistics) have
already earned the respect of some
Major League Baseball organizations. They have
certainly earned my respect as well. The level of insight
found on the web over the last few
years has increased exponentially, and so has the
challenge of winning a competitive league. Fielding
a championship team is a 9 month commitment that
extends beyond selecting the right players come
draft day. However if you're not selecting the right
players on draft day, it's quite an obstructive
mountain to climb.
Here's
a shout out to the guys over at FantasyBaseballCafe.com
and BaseballForums.com for
their help in compiling the projection sources. Have a big
fantasy season, see you next year.
-Dave
LaDue AKA RotoDaddy
